Q. Discuss the relevance of weather forecast and seismic studies. (45 BPSC/2002)

Q. Discuss the relevance of weather forecast and seismic studies. (45 BPSC/2002)

Ans: Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change.
Howweather forecastingdone?

• Traditionally, it was done on the basis of changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition or cloud cover.
• weather forecasting relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases.

Relevance of weather forecast:

• For weather warning -> used to protect life and property.
• Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets.
  • Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat, and corn crops.
• Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days.
  • Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand.
• to determine what to wear on a given day.
• Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.
• accurate weather forecasting is essential in the aviation industry.
  • Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.
  • Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards.
  • On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.
• Weather forecasting of wind, precipitations and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires.
• Conditions for the development of harmful insects can be predicted by forecasting the evolution of weather, too. e.g. Desert Locust breed in damp soil.
• Government can make appropriate planning depending on weather forecast.

Seismic studies:Study of earthquakes and the propagation of elastic waves through the Earth. The field also includes studies of earthquake environmental effects such as tsunamis as well as diverse seismic sources such as volcanic, tectonic, oceanic, atmospheric, and artificial processes such as explosions.Some notable earthquakes that spurred major advancements in seismic studies are the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, the 1964 Alaska earthquake, the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake.
Seismic waves are elastic waves that propagate in solid or fluid materials. They can be divided into body waves that travel through the interior of the materials; surface waves that travel along surfaces or interfaces between materials; and normal modes, a form of standing wave.Relevance of seismic studies:

• It helps in understanding the behaviour of structures of various types subjected to earthquake loads,
• how we can protect the inhabitants of that structure in an event of an earthquake,
• Seismic study also helps us to understand the various types of seismic waves that originate,
• Mapping the earth’s interior:
  • Since S-waves do not pass through liquids, the liquid core causes a “shadow” on the side of the planet opposite the earthquake where no direct S-waves are observed. In addition, P-waves travel much slower through the outer core than the mantle.
  • Processing readings from many seismometers using seismic tomography, seismologists have mapped the mantle of the earth to a resolution of several hundred kilometers.
• Earthquake prediction:
  • Various attempts have been made by seismologists and others to create effective systems for precise earthquake predictions.
  • Most seismologists do not believe that a system to provide timely warnings for individual earthquakes has yet been developed, and many believe that such a system would be unlikely to give useful warning of impending seismic events.
    • However, more general forecasts routinely predict seismic hazard. Such forecasts estimate the probability of an earthquake of a particular size affecting a particular location within a particular time-span, and they are routinely used in earthquake engineering (Earthquake engineering is an interdisciplinary branch of engineering that designs and analyzes structures, such as buildings and bridges, with earthquakes in mind).
• helping us map the zones of frequent earthquakes and stable zones,
  • The study of seismic activity of a particular zone helps in establishing minimum standards of safety for that zone, making life more easy to continue post earthquake.
• Designing big Engineering structures
• Hazard analysis onshore and offshore
• Exploring Hydrocarbons and Exploring Minerals.
• For developing earthquake resistance building:
  • all buildings in Japan are required to have an earthquake-resistant structure, which means that new construction can only be approved through rigorous compliance with earthquake-proof standards.
  • In Japan, wooden buildings have been used for many years, “Traditional wooden structures, such as temples, are very resistant to earthquakes. They bend like willow to avoid building up stress.” We have actually seen wooden buildings swaying a lot in large earthquakes.

Note: The 1934 Bihar earthquake or 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake was one of the worst earthquakes in India’s history. Munger and Muzaffarpur were completely destroyed.