Q. Write a short note on the origin of Covid-19. How 2nd wave of covid 19 was different from the first in symptom, spread and impact?
Ans:
The origin of Covid-19:
- Recently, a group of 18 scientists, most of them from the U.S published a letter in the journal Science, calling for further investigation to determine the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The origin of SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 virus still remains a mystery. There is no clear information about where, when and how did the virus that causes the disease originate.
The novel coronavirus was first reported from Wuhan, a Chinese city hosting a laboratory conducting virus research, and the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED) notified pneumonia of unknown cause in the city on December 30, 2019. The city’s Huanan wet market was associated with many of the earliest cases. - The two prevailing competing theories about the origin of the Virus:
- Natural spillover theory: The virus jumped from animals, possibly originating with bats, to humans, or
- Lab leak theory: The virus escaped from a virology laboratory in Wuhan, China.
- WHO’s governing forum, the World Health Assembly, mandated the Director-General in May 2020 to conduct an inquiry into the origin of SARS-CoV2, and a joint probe was carried out by WHO and China in January-February 2021.
- Since there was no conclusive evidence for either hypothesis — natural spillover or lab leak — there were apprehensions when the report leaned in favour of the animal origin hypothesis, describing it as “likely to very likely”, and stated that a laboratory incident was “extremely unlikely”.
- Many did not see the investigation as being extensive enough and experts view that the more studies were necessary.
- Experts are concerned that the lab leak possibility had been given inadequate attention by the WHO team, and, in fact, treated as a “conspiracy theory”. Understanding the origin of the virus was important to both increase safety in laboratories undertaking biological research, and to prevent pandemics of animal origin.
- Arguments in favour of Wuhan lab leak theory:
- To some scientists, the release of a dangerous pathogen via a careless lab worker is a plausible hypothesis for how the pandemic started and warrants investigation.
- The Wuhan lab, China’s leading SARS research facility, is not far from the Huanan Seafood Market, which early in the health crisis was cited as the most likely place where animal-to-human transmission of the virus may have taken place. The market was also the site of the first known COVID-19 superspreader event.
- The suspicions is mainly based on following facts:
- Proximity between Wuhan lab and Huanan Seafood Market,
- The failure so far to identify any wildlife infected with the same viral lineage,
- Chinese government’s refusal to allow the lab-leak scenario to be fully investigated.
- Although the Wuhan lab’s scientists have said they had no trace of SARS-CoV-2 in their inventory at the time, 24 researchers sent a letter to the World Health Organization (WHO) urging a rigorous, independent investigation. The WHO’s first such mission to China this year failed to probe deeply enough, they wrote.
- A U.S. State Department fact sheet, released before the WHO mission alleged, without proof, that several WIV researchers had fallen sick with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 or common seasonal illnesses before the first publicly confirmed case in December 2019.
- A May 5, story by Nicholas Wade in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said lab scientists experimenting on a virus sometimes insert a sequence called a “furin cleavage site” into its genome in a manner that makes the virus more infective.
- David Baltimore, a Nobel Prize-winning virologist quoted in the article, said when he spotted the sequence in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, he felt he had found the smoking gun for the origin of the virus.
- The novel corona virus is less similar, by comparison, to the genome of viruses that have caused other epidemics such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).
- Arguments for animal-to-human transmission (Natural spillover theory):
- Many scientists believe a natural origin is more likely and have seen no scientific evidence to support the lab leak theory.
- The Joint WHO-China study report identifies a SARS related coronavirus in a bat to which the SARS-CoV2 virus has 96.2% genomic similarity.
- Another scientist K. G. Andersen, who has done extensive work on corona viruses, Ebola and other pathogens transmissible from animals to humans, said similar genomic sequences occur naturally in coronaviruses and are unlikely to be manipulated in the way Baltimore described for experimentation.
- Scientists who favor the natural origins hypothesis have relied largely on history. Some of the most lethal new diseases of the past century have been traced to human interactions with wildlife and domestic animals, including the first SARS epidemic (bats), MERS-CoV (camels), Ebola (bats or non-human primates) and Nipah virus.
- While an animal source has not been identified so far, swabs of stalls in the wildlife section of the wildlife market in Wuhan after the outbreak tested positive, suggesting an infected animal or human handler.
- Thus both the theories lacks definitive proof.
On May 26, U.S. President said his national security staff does not believe there is sufficient information to assess one theory to be more likely than the other. He instructed intelligence officials to collect and analyze information that could close in on definitive conclusion and report back in 90 days.
The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has also acknowledged that more work needs to be done on the lab leak theory, although a WHO team that visited Wuhan thought a leak to be the least likely hypothesis.
As Covid-19 virus is mutating fast in different variants. Some of these variants are Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants which fall under variants of concern and Eta, Iota, Kappa and Lambda variants which are fall under Variants of Interest. These variants of virus have different symptoms, propensity to spread, fatality rate etc. According to recent ICMR study, Delta variant (or B1.617.2) was responsible for the deadly second wave of Covid-19. It was first detected in India in late 2020.
Difference between 1st and 2nd wave of covid 19:
- During the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India, local mutations did not play a major contributing role. But many experts believe that the current surge in Covid-19 cases is being pushed by homegrown mutant variants of SARS-CoV-2.
- In symptom:
- Most symptoms of Covid-19 remain the same in the second wave as in the first including fever, chills, body ache, loss of smell and taste, and loss of breath or respiratory complications.
- Other symptoms which were not very common among Covid-19 patients in India last year are being reported with greater frequencies. These symptoms are pink eyes, loose motions and hearing impairment, which is a totally new sign detected in the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic.
- The mutated strain has had far more side effects post-recovery than during the first wave. e.g. black, white, and yellow fungus cases.
- The eye problems, short-term memory loss, and fatigue are the most common side effects of the 2nd wave of covid-19.
- In spread:
- The infections spreading was much faster. It may also be because of the absence of a strict lockdown during the 2nd wave of covid-19.
- Some experts have claimed that the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic is affecting younger people more compared to the first wave seen in 2020. Some of the possible explanation to this trend can be that:
- Older and more vulnerable people have largely remained indoors as cases rose.
- Older people were also among the priority group for vaccination that has proven to reduce severity of the Covid-19 illness.
- However, there is no officially released data related to the age composition of the infections.
- The second wave started in the west with Maharashtra, went up North and peaked up in the south of the country.
- Rural India was worst hit during the 2nd wave. The first wave was primarily urban in its spread. Urban areas reported more cases than rural areas for the first five months of the spread. In the second wave rural areas started reporting more cases than urban ones from the second month itself.
- In impact:
- The second wave of COVID-19 infections has hit India with greater ferocity than the first. The sudden hike in the cases left us wanting for basic necessities such as oxygen and medical supplies.
- The situation was further aggravated, due to the inadequacy of medical infrastructure in the rural areas where more cases were reported during the 2nd wave.
- According a report, the death rate in second wave lower than the first. However, the fatality rate is still surging.
- The case fatality rate in the first wave of the pandemic was 1.41 percent. But, The case fatality rate (CFR) in the second wave (considering that it began in March) in the four-and-a-half months is at 1.28 percent.
- However, the higher CFR since May-end has been reported due to the high number of ‘backlog’ deaths reported across states.
- The study conducted by Max Healthcare shows that the mortality rate among the hospitalised patients in the 2nd wave was about 40% higher than the 1st wave.
- Economic impact:
- Although both waves of covid-19 has adverse impact on the economy, the intensity of impact may be different. The government’s approach in dealing with the two waves has been different. The response to the second wave has been localised and driven by the states while in the first wave we went for a national lockdown.
- In the first wave, there was prolonged national lockdown. Manufacturing and the urban economy had come to a grinding halt while the rural economy continued to move. As a result, agriculture, which is the primary driver of our rural economy providing employment to 58% of our population, continued to grow. Reflecting on the GDP figures, our agricultural economy grew by 3.4% while the overall economy contracted with 7.7% in FY21. But, as 2nd wave had more adverse impact on the rural part of the country, Agriculture will see a deeper cut from the second wave compared to the first wave where it grew..
- Manufacturing was at the receiving end in both the first and the second wave because of broken supply chains, migration of workers back to villages etc.
- Service sector and knowledge-based industries are likely to be the least hit from 2nd wave as remote working was possible for software and telecalling workforce.
- During the financial year 2020-21, GDP contracted by 7.3 percent. While India’s economy was earlier expected to rebound faster among all major economies in FY22, the first quarter growth has already been hit hard by the second wave.
- However, less severe impact of the second wave is expected due to less strict, localized lockdowns and practically a lesser number of days in reaching the peak number of infections.
- Social impact of both the waves were almost on similar line.
- Social distancing also impacted interpersonal relationships, empathy toward others and even the carrying out of important rituals such as funerals.
- Students were not able to pursue their education normally. To end the anxiety among students, the government has decided to cancel the CBSE 12th examination.
- Impact on children seems to be more severe during the 2nd wave. According to the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights, between April 1, 2020 and June 5, 2021, 3,621 chilren had lost both parents to the pandemic, 26,176 had lost one parent, and 274 had been abandoned.
- A study by Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has found that 2nd wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in India killed more pregnant women and new mothers as compared to the first. the case fatality rate (CFR) in pregnant and postpartum women and found that it was 5.7% in the second wave as opposed to 0.75 in the first wave.
- Restrictions have had an impact on mental and social well-being, giving rise to severe mental disorders, intellectual disability.
- However, as restrictions were not as strict as during the 1st wave, the psychological impact during 2nd wave may not be as severe as during 1st wave.
- Environmental impacts:
- Due to strict prolonged lockdown during the 1st wave, there were some positive impacts on the environment as air, water quality improved. As lockdown was short and not so strict, such impact was not as strong as during the 1st wave.
- Political:
- The lack of preparedness of health infrastructure was more visible during the 2nd wave. It may change the people’s outlook towards politics and it may make the government more accountable for the governance issues.
- Task of pandemic management was not as centralised as it was during the 1st wave; a healthy trend for the federalism.
- The second wave of COVID-19 infections has hit India with greater ferocity than the first. The sudden hike in the cases left us wanting for basic necessities such as oxygen and medical supplies.
Presently, it appears that the second wave is on its way out with daily cases coming down to around 40,000 from the peaks of nearly 4 lakh cases. We have lost over 4 lakh precious lives to COVID-19 already. There are also warnings about the impending third wave of the pandemic. Only an efficient vaccination drive and Covid appropriate behaviour by the people can help us effectively deal with the pandemic and minimise the loss of precious lives. ©crackingcivilservices.com
